15 Meters/11Seconds By C Flaherty and AR Green

Chris Flaherty and AR Green both Senior Research Associates at the University of Wollongong have provided me with this paper surrounding their research into terrorist attacks involving suicide bombers and have allowed me to share it here..

“In the case of blast events, most small to medium IEDs the first 15meters is generally taken to be catastrophic!”  The study makes the point clearly the significant difference in the number of killed and injured based on whether or not  people are inside or outside the 15 meter radius at the point of detonation. 

The study also discusses pre-incident indicators involving body language and deception techniques, the 5 terrorist archetypes they identify (nervous, drug affected, calm, euphoric,and aggressive) use.  Blasting models and standoff distances for crowds and responders are also discussed. The study also covers blast effects on people and materials. The use a very compelling example involving a suicide bomber, based on the recent history of these types of attacks to make their points clear.

People with high empathy will be influenced by people. Whereas, those people who exhibit high disorientation will enter a random pattern of movement. These two features underpin the key moments prior to a terrorist attack, in terms of deception outwitting perception or vice versa. Modeling this in the context of a terrorist attack requires a new form of granular analysis. 15meters/11seconds is the title of the research project modeled in this paper. It is a terrorist attack scenario which will be examined as a time/action study of the immediate minuets leading up to, and after a terrorist attack. Out of this, the ground rules are established for modeling an approach to the problem.

I highly recommend you read the study.  The work is very important and very useful to those responsible for detecting, disrupting, deterring or responding to this type of terrorist attack.

Stay Oriented!

Fred

The full PDF of  “15Metters/11 Seconds” is bellow.

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Flaherty_Green_15m11sec_19 MAY 11_final.pdf350.67 KB