Acknowledging the Adversary in Risk Assessment

The problem of assessing the risk of adversary attack is rooted in part in two key principles of conflict and risk identified by Michael Handel in War, Strategy, and Intelligence. The first principle is the reciprocal nature of conflict:

… the reciprocal nature of all action in war means that attempts to grasp its complexities through a static, unilaterally based concept will never succeed…. a realistic approach must consider how one’s adversary interprets the war as well. Thus, perceiving the nature of a war is a reciprocal and dialectic process in which it is important to consider how one side’s perspective and actions affect the other side’s actions and reactions.

There's a give and take to conflict. Our adversary is not an inanimate object. it is instead a walking talking and thinking animate force with its own objectives and plans. this is important to consider in assessments of threats. This article by Red Team Journal gets to this point very clearly. ~Fred 

Do Ideas Matter? A Clausewitzian Case Study by Adam Elkus

“Ideas matter,” the new Army Capstone Concept declares. Ideas certainly do matter, and doctrine can be the key to victory or defeat. But it is immensely difficult to predict the form that ideas will eventually take. The reception and dilution of Clausewitzian theory in American military doctrine suggests that influence is contingent--and the end product of counterinsurgency (COIN) doctrine’s continuing evolution in American strategy is unlikely to conform to the predictions of either COIN’s most fervent admirers or detractors.

Great article discussion of center of gravity, its strengths and weaknesses. ~Fred

Man who made bomb threat at LA-area bank surrenders

Officials say hundreds of people were evacuated from Citizens Business Bank and nearby buildings after the man shoved a note under the closed door at around 10 a.m. claiming he had a bomb.

Explosive Device Set Off on Virginia Train Tracks, Feds Say

A spokesman for the Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearm, said local residents reported hearing a boom about 6:30 a.m. Thursday. He said local police have investigated and determined there was an explosive device on train tracks near the campus of James Madison University at Cheapeake Street and Cantrell Avenue.

He said there were no injuries and terrorism is not suspected.

Suspended Hoboken cop caused disturbance in security area at Tampa Airport

A Lieutenant.of the Hoboken Police Department, who is currently on a two-year paid suspension from the force following the 2007 SWAT team scandal in Hoboken, caused a disturbance at Tampa International Airport in Florida on Jan. 18, police reported.

According to a Tampa police log, two TIA police officers responded to a disturbance call at 9:15 a.m. when the Lieutenant 56, who was in line for a flight to New Jersey, became irate when airline flight crew members were permitted to pass him in line at a Transportation Security Administration checkpoint. He took pictures of TSA agents' badges, police said.

Stress management and losing your cool. Where's the Leadership?~Fred

Scare, threat, wind force evacuations at EHT High School

A gun scare, bomb threats and power outages that are unrelated have all plagued Egg Harbor Township High School in the last week and are causing school officials to review their emergency procedures.

There was an unfounded gun scare Jan. 20, a bomb threat made by a student Jan. 21 and students went home at 12:30 Jan. 25 after a power outage.

Possible failure tactics???

CCTV in the sky: police plan to use military-style spy drones

Police in the UK are planning to use unmanned spy drones, controversially deployed in Afghanistan, for the ­"routine" monitoring of antisocial motorists, ­protesters, agricultural thieves and fly-tippers, in a significant expansion of covert state surveillance.